26 10 2014



Macro Housing Conditions – The Long-Term Outlook For The Australian Housing Market

27 09 2012


Macro-Housing conditions the long-term outlook for the Australian housing market 

by  on Sep 09, 2012  www.slideshare.net

Leading Australian economist Leith van Onselen provides the 121st Annual Henry George Commemorative dinner presentation. The wide ranging discussion covers land and housing prices, bank lending, demographics and investment behaviour plus the commodity boom’s influence on incomes and thus land prices.

More of Leith’s work can be seen on Macrobusiness.com.au


Australian Economy collapse

12 11 2011

I strongly encourage all Australians to take a good look at what is happening with the Euro and the US dollar at the moment and take the time to put in place some strategies to help protect  investments, superannuation and your personal finances.

The collapse of the Euro is inevitable.  The green back collapse is inevitable.  The question that needs to be asked is when will the Aussie $$ head in the same direction?

Wisdom says to begin preparing your households because it’s only a matter of time now..




Overindulgence Has its Consequences

12 08 2011

There are currently 377,300 houses for sale across Australia, according to SQM Research data released today – up 21.9 per cent on last year.

Why is this significant?

Well, we have some 8.9 million houses. A quick back of the envelope calculation tells me 3.79 per cent of all our houses are for sale right now.

But wait, we typically exchange about four per cent of these each year.

This suggests we have over eleven months stock on the market today. The US is struggling with 9 months of supply on the market, a level which is driving down prices.

And this before the start of the Spring selling season, when would-be vendors unveil their polished treasures, gardens are at their best and the birds are singing tra la!

Hmmm. I see a price reset as bountiful supply overwhelms cautious demand. My advice: Don’t Buy Now!

Original Source http://www.prosper.org.au/2011/08/10/overindulgence-has-its-consequences/

Why Australia is set to follow US path of house price doom

26 03 2011

Money Morning reader David wrote us an interesting note about the fall of house prices in the UK:

“I remember living in the UK sometime around 2006 – 2007 and house prices, like Australia now, were overvalued.  As soon as property went on the market they sold at crazy prices…

“Just as you predict here in this email house prices crashed about 18 months after their peak.

“The media blamed it [falling UK house prices] on the world financial crisis, which did have an impact but they were already on their way down.

“So many people forget a house is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it.”

As time passes there’s always the tendency to compress events.  Looking back now, it’s easy to think all the economic problems started in September 2008… around the time Lehman Brothers collapsed.

But that’s not the case at all.

For starters, the stock market peaked in October 2007.  By the end of September 2008 – before Lehman collapsed – the Aussie stock market had already fallen 27% from the peak…

An article definitely worth reading…find the rest at this link.

Why Australia is set to follow the US path of House price doom

Australian Housing Bubble – Steve Keen vs Chris Joye FEB 2011

13 03 2011

Interesting to note the body language of Mr Joye during this entire debate. Will be interesting to see whether the Government is going to introduce another scheme to entice First Home Buyers or even re-introduce the $14,000 grant.  Only time will tell..

First Home Buyers got “totally suckered”

26 02 2011

A new survey has found First Home Buyers are selling up in droves, no longer able to afford their houses purchased with the lurer of free money from the First Home Buyers Boost.

The survey, conducted by Mortgage Choice shows 10 percent of first home buyers who have purchased within the last two years have either sold or are selling up.

If interest rates rise a further 1 percent, another 6 percent said they would sell. An additional 14 percent would flood the market if rates rise 1.5 percent.

Andrew Robb, Shadow Minister for Finance and Debt Reduction said young homeowners “got totally suckered”.

“The Government propped up the market by luring in young people but there were no warnings about what might happen within a year or two – with interest rates in particular.”

“Now young people have had a double whammy because not only have interest rates added $6000 a year to typical repayments, the cost of living is soaring, with electricity prices up nearly 40 per cent in three years, water up 27 per cent and rates up 15 per cent.”

Treasury minutes about the First Home Saver Accounts (FHSA) released under freedom of information said “The short term stimulus [BOOST] was designed to encourage people who had already been saving for a home to bring forward their purchase and prevent the collapse of the housing market. Contrary to this measure, the FHSA is designed to encourage saving over the medium to long term.”

If the first home buyers boost was designed to prevent the collapse of the housing market, one has to wonder what the government’s plan was when the stimulus finished and the unsustainable housing market built on record levels of household debt starts to collapse again. You can’t keep propping it up.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/property/homeowners-face-tougher-times-ahead/story-e6freztr-1226008703929 20 Feb 2011